March Madness is here. It's win-or-go-home for Alabama basketball and everyone else. That proverbial switch has to be flipped now or the Crimson Tide could be in danger of an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
Nate Oats has set the bar high for Alabama. In his press conference after the bracket was revealed on Sunday, Oats said that anything short of a Final Four would be a disappointment for this team. Those were certainly the expectations coming into this season.
Alabama made the Final Four for the first time in program history a year ago and returned key pieces such as Mark Sears and Grant Nelson, added an impressive recruiting class led by Labaron Philon, Derrion Reid, and Aiden Sherrell, and added big pieces out of the Transfer Portal like Cliff Omoruyi and Chris Youngblood.
Of course, preseason expectations don't account for injuries and there have been a plethora of them. Latrell Wrightsell blew his Achilles in Las Vegas in November. Houston Mallette's knees were never right. Reid has missed a ton of time, too. Now, Alabama might have to open the NCAA Tournament without Grant Nelson, who injured his knee in Alabama's loss to Florida in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament.
The latest update on Nelson was positive, but it seems more likely than not that he will not play in the Crimson Tide's first-round matchup on Friday against Robert Morris. They will likely need him for Sunday's matchup against either St. Mary's or Vanderbilt, assuming the Crimson Tide handles business against the Horizon League champion.
Alabama is a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament for just the fourth time in program history. That doesn't mean 15-seed Robert Morris is just going to roll over and play dead, however. The Colonials will come in with a belief that they can play with, and beat, the Crimson Tide.
Led by Horizon League Player of the Year Alvaro Folgueiras, Defensive Player of the Year Amarion Dickerson, and Alabama native Kam Woods, Robert Morris has some firepower to give the Tide some problems.
A deeper dive on the Colonials can be found here.
How to watch Alabama vs. Robert Morris in the NCAA Tournament First Round
Tip Time: 11:40 AM CT
TV: truTV
Streaming: Fubo TV
Betting Odds:
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Spread: Alabama -22.5
Over/Under: 166.5
Prediction:
Robert Morris runs its offense around Folgueiras, who is a dangerous shooter and a true inside-out player. He hit 42.7% of his 103 attempts from three on the season. He can score in a variety of ways and they tend to surround him with other shooters. Josh Omojafo, DJ Smith, and Ryan Prather Jr. are all 38% or better from deep.
The biggest problem for the Colonials is they don't take care of the basketball and they don't defend the three-point line well. Those two things likely make a matchup with Alabama a nightmare for them. Robert Morris ranks 205th in the country in three-point percentage allowed and turns it over on 18.5% of their offensive possessions.
If the Crimson Tide can force turnovers and get out in transition, this game will get ugly, fast.
Alabama should be able to attack the paint. Folgueiras isn't much of a defender and while Dickerson is an excellent shot blocker for his size, at 6-foot-7 I don't believe he is going to deter Alabama's guards from attacking him at the rim.
Proper effort from Alabama should allow them, even without Nelson, to have a big advantage on the glass. Robert Morris isn't likely to have much of an answer for Cliff Omoruyi on the glass and at the rim.