An Alabama Football victory over LSU hinges on the Jalen Milroe conundrum

For Alabama Football and LSU, Saturday's night outcome will not only determine Playoff contention, it will define, fairly or not, a presumed future for Kalen DeBoer and Brian Kelly. Followers of the LSU program have painted a bleak picture for Kelly's future if he cannot win at home against a new Alabama Football coach. To a degree that is both insane and real, Kalen DeBoer arrived in Tuscaloosa on a hot seat. A trite phrase may apply to the game, 'the stakes don't get any higher'.

The game can play out in many ways. The closest thing to a sure prediction is that the game will be close. Close games often come down to winning a turnover battle. LSU QB, Garrett Nussmeier has carried LSU's offense this season. He is accurate and a risk-taker. Unless Alabama rattles Nussmeier with pressure, the game could turn into a shootout.

IN LSU's last four games. Nussmeier has thrown seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The ratio alarms LSU fans. But Nussmeier must throw often because against conference opponents, LSU is No. 13 among SEC teams, in average yards per rush of 3.43 yards.

Since the Georgia game, Jalen Milroe has thrown three touchdown passes and five interceptions. Since the second quarter of the Georgia game, Milroe has too often failed on passes that for an average quarterback should have been routine completions. More harmful to the Crimson Tide offense has been Milroe's production on the ground. Milroe gained 117 net rushing yards against Georgia. In the four games since, Milroe's combined rushing production is 107 net yards.

Alabama Football Conundrum

Blame for the troubling conundrum must be shared. It is not all on Milroe. The Alabama offensive line has not consistently delivered. Offensive schemes and play-calling may have had a negative impact. Whatever the sources of Milroe's rushing slump, it cannot occur against LSU. Brian Kelly knows LSU must make Alabama's offense overly dependent on passing. If they do, LSU has the defensive talent to harass Jalen Milroe. Milroe, under frequent pressure in Tiger Stadium, is a recipe for an LSU win.

A different possible outcome requires a top performance by the Crimson Tide defense. Stuff the LSU rushing attack, frequently pressure Nussmeier, win a turnover battle, and limit debilitating penalties; Alabama Football wins a close, 'not-shootout' game.

Less stressful for Crimson Tide fans would be 'Good' Jalen Milroe torching LSU with enough explosive plays to win by double-digits.

Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference