Alabama is facing long odds to make it past the Sweet 16 on Friday.
The Crimson Tide has the second-lowest odds to advance to the Final Four, in large part because of the opponent it must get through to even make the Elite Eight. 1-seeded Michigan is historically good, and it will take the best effort of the season for Nate Oats' team to have a shot at pulling the upset.
Not many are giving Alabama a chance, and there's a lot of statistical backing as to why.
Fox Sports' Chris Fallica, often known as "The Bear", shared one of the most concerning historical trends that has Alabama as such a long shot to advance on Friday:
Since the field expanded in 1985, double-digit favorites in the Sweet 16 are 37-3 straight-up, with the three losses being Purdue to Saint Peter’s in 2022, Duke to Indiana in 2002 and Kansas to Arizona in 1997. Michigan is a 10-point favorite over Alabama...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 24, 2026
Only 3 teams have ever won a Sweet 16 as 10+ point underdogs like Alabama
That's not all that confidence-inspiring, but, as my good friend Lloyd Christmas once said, so you're telling me there's a chance?
It has happened before, after all, and if Alabama can play defense at the level it did against Texas Tech and match that with another strong shooting performance, they'll knock off the Wolverines and shock the college basketball world in Chicago.
Oats will have his team ready to play. The Sweet 16 used to be a glass ceiling for this program, but the Crimson Tide has won back-to-back games in this round, knocking off BYU last year thanks to a ridiculous shooting barrage, and then taking down 1-seed North Carolina two years ago on their way to the Final Four.
This Michigan team is much better than that North Carolina team; however, there are some similarities. Most importantly, most figured the Tar Heels had a significant advantage in the frontcourt, but some creative coaching by Oats, along with an all-time performance by Grant Nelson, led Alabama to the upset win.
Perhaps Oats can find that magic again, and sophomore Aiden Sherrell can go punch-for-punch with the Wolverines frontcourt.