The Alabama Crimson Tide needs a win on Wednesday night. An SEC Tournament double-bye might be lost if Alabama cannot beat the Gators (or Auburn). The chances of an NCAA Tournament 1-seed would be diminished by a loss to Florida. Those situations make for a more important game than the recent Tennessee game.
Alabama may have to win with only eight scholarship players available. Grant Nelson is listed as questionable for the game. Even if Nelson can play, he will likely be less than 100%. He had been dealing with a shin bruise and he took a hard fall on his hip in the loss to Tennessee. No other information has been made available.
On multiple occasions in the last few weeks, Nate Oats has said inconsistent play has been a problem for Nelson. He has been consistent in three ways, two of which hurt the team. He is the Crimson Tide's leading rebounder at eight per game. But he has also been the second-most turnover-prone player among the regulars and his three-point shooting has been consistently weak all season at 25%.
The turnovers have been especially troublesome. Nate Oats said before the Tennessee game, "We do need Grant to be a little more aggressive and a little bit more efficient in his minutes. His turnovers, some games, he's been a little inconsistent with taking care of the ball, so he has to take care of the ball"
Potential Alabama Crimson Tide Foul Problems
With Derrion Reid also out against the Gators, Cliff Omoruyi, Mo Dioubate, Jarin Stevenson, and Aiden Sherrell would get more minutes if Nelson cannot play. Against a tall Florida lineup, Alabama would be at risk of getting outrebounded and into foul trouble with its bigs. The Gators are just behind the Alabama Crimson Tide as the SEC's best rebounding team and average slightly more offensive rebounds than Alabama.
Even with Grant Nelson, beating Florida is a stiff challenge. The Gators have won seven of their last eight games, including a nine-point win over Auburn at Neville Arena. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 62.5% probability of winning. That number has not changed since Nelson was listed as Questionable for the game.