The Iron Bowl gameday spread provided by FanDuel has the Alabama Crimson Tide as a 5.5-point favorite over the Auburn Tigers. Potentially, Saturday night's game could be one of the most consequential Iron Bowls in a series filled with games that have defined teams.
With a win, the Crimson Tide moves on to the SEC Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia jumped the Texas A&M Aggies in tie-breaker qualification after the Texas Longhorns gave the Aggies their first loss of the season.
The 90th Iron Bowl is huge for both head coaches. Auburn interim head coach, DJ Durkin, could propel himself into filling the Auburn open with an Iron Bowl win. Kalen DeBoer's reputation with Alabama football fans would take a major hit if the team lost to Auburn and missed the playoffs again.
Top Computer Models Favor Alabama Crimson Tide in Iron Bowl
The probability of an Alabama Crimson Tide win ranges from 63% to 83% in five credible computer models. Jeff Sagarin gives Alabama the lowest probability at 63%. Bill Connelly's SP+ model has the probability at 65%. Brian Fremeau's FEI model gives Alabama a 73.1% probability of winning. ESPN Analytics projects a Crimson Tide win at 73.5%. The Massey Ratings provide the most optimism for Alabama football fans with a probability of a Crimson Tide win at 83%.
Iron Bowl Score Predictions
- Bill Connelly's SP+ model has Alabama winning 27-21
- Brian Fremeau's FEI Ratings model has the Crimson Tide winning 27-18
- The Massey Ratings have the Alabama Crimson Tide beating Auburn by a score of 30-20
- Jeff Sagarin's prediction has Alabama winning by a score of 27-21
- The College Football Nerds' model projects an Alabama Crimson Tide win of 27-21
Iron Bowl history will not determine the 90th Iron Bowl result. But the history concerns some Alabama football fans. The Crimson Tide has won 41.2% of its Iron Bowl games in Jordan-Hare Stadium.