Alabama’s season didn’t end in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. The Crimson Tide held firm at No. 9 in the College Football Playoff rankings to set up a first-round CFP matchup at No. 8 Oklahoma on Friday, December 21. However, to many, the 28-7 loss did end Alabama’s national championship contention.
While it did get across the finish line and into the CFP, Kalen DeBoer’s team has been leaking oil down the stretch, and so has his quarterback. Ty Simpson played himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation as he led Alabama back from its Week 1 loss to Florida State, but it seems that version of the Tide’s redshirt junior quarterback has vanished.
So, what’s wrong with Simpson? Can it be fixed in time for a rematch with the Sooners, and how poorly did he actually play in the loss to Georgia?
When Ty Simpson has struggled this season, it’s largely been for the same reason: a lack of anticipation. His best trait is his willingness to aggressively attack the intermediate middle of the field with accuracy and anticipation, but that’s a high-risk, high-reward area of the field. There are bodies between the numbers, so if your timing isn’t precise, it could go the other way.
That’s what happened on Simpson's interception in the first quarter, which led to Georgia taking a 14-0 lead. He has Isaiah Horton running a dig from a condensed split as the backside X opposite a trips bunch to the right. Georgia drops a defensive lineman out to get numbers to the bunch, and as soon as that happens, Simpson should have gotten off of it and come back to Horton.
Simpson recognizes it and gets back to Horton quickly, but pats the ball, likely because linebacker Raylen Wilson is dropping underneath the route. Once you pat the ball on that read, it’s dead. Simpson throws it anyway, it gets tipped by KJ Bolden, and is intercepted by Daylen Everette.
It’s great defense by Georgia, especially on Wilson’s part to get enough depth in his drop that Simpson doesn’t immediately trigger to Horton, but it was there regardless, and Simpson should have trusted that and let it go. Instead, he was late, and Horton ran into coverage.
From that point on, every snap he took was down at least two touchdowns. Because Alabama has no run game, opposing defensive coordinators can blitz, stunt, and sim pressure with reckless abandon because they know they can stop the run regardless. Those blitzes were particularly impactful by Georgia this time around because Simpson didn’t have Jam Miller or Josh Cuevas, his veteran running back and tight end, on the field to help with pass protection.
Georgia blitzed on 60 percent of Simpson’s dropbacks, which obviously rattled him and caused his accuracy to trail off. That’s going to be the case against Oklahoma in the first round, so Simpson needs to trust his eyes and get the ball out quickly to mitigate it because there’s little chance that the run game suddenly appears.
Can it be fixed? Sure. Alabama went for over 400 yards on Oklahoma’s defense last time. However, as some of Simpson’s high-risk throws, which were cashing in early in the season, have gone for interceptions late in the year, he’s gotten a bit apprehensive, and that dooms a rhythm-based passer who loves to throw between the numbers.
Simpson is by no means the biggest problem on Alabama’s offense. The offensive line isn’t giving him time like it was early in the year, and teams have caught on to the complete lack of a ground game, but to be the solution, he’ll need to get back to playing with anticipation and accuracy, even against designer blitz packages and coverage rotations.