Opening odds rightfully favor Alabama in 1st-round College Football Playoff rematch

In 2024, a late-season loss to Oklahoma cost the Crimson Tide a trip to the College Football Playoff. In 2025, the Crimson Tide are in the field despite falling to the Sooners again. The SEC’s newest member is Alabama’s new bogeyman, and yet, as Kalen DeBoer looks to get his team off the mat after a blowout loss to Georgia in the SEC Title Game, they’re favored to win the rematch in Norman. 

After the CFP bracket reveal kept Alabama at No. 9, setting up a trip to play No. 8 Oklahoma on Friday, December 19, with kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Sooners beat the Tide 23-21 in Tuscaloosa in Week 12, but as opening odds began to trickle out, the FanDuel Sportsbook had Alabama favored by 1.5 points on the road. 

Alabama opens as a 1.5-point road favorite at Oklahoma

While it might seem surprising that Alabama, a team that many people are arguing should have been left out of the playoff after a lifeless performance against Georgia on Saturday, is favored to win its first-round game, it shouldn’t be. Oklahoma won that game in Week 12, 23-21, but Alabama dominated the entire way. 

The Tide outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt through the air as Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards on what might be the best defense in college football. Aided by turnovers and favorable field position. Oklahoma’s scoring drives came on drives of 23 yards, 31 yards, 41 yards, and 22 yards. The Sooners never moved the ball consistently on the Tide, and Oklahoma’s first touchdown of the game came on a pick-six. 

Oklahoma certainly deserves credit for its ability to force turnovers. With a dominant run defense, the Sooners force teams into obvious passing situations and feast with a barrage of blitz packages to wreak havoc in the backfield. However, there is still an element of randomness to turnovers. It’s an inflated oblong ball bouncing on a field with 22 people; sometimes you recover the forced fumble, sometimes you don’t. 

If there wasn’t any random aspect to it, Oklahoma would have simply hit the turnover button when it was giving up 34 points to Ole Miss in Week 9. It didn’t, because it couldn’t, and if it doesn’t this time around against Alabama, the Tide will be in good shape. 

Success rate is the best statistical measure of down-to-down, well, success, in football. The formulas vary, but it’s essentially asking, are you gaining half the yardage to a first down on first down, two-thirds on second down, and converting on third or fourth down. 

Well, Alabama’s success rate in Week 12 was 46 percent to Oklahoma’s 33 percent. That’s dominance, and the only way to flip that is with explosive plays and turnovers. Oklahoma got enough then, but that’s not easy to count on a second time around.