August is both a beginning and an end for college football fans. It marks the start of a new season and is also the last month when championship dreams must face realities. For the Alabama Crimson Tide fanbase, every August includes anticipation for another Crimson Tide national championship run. At least it was that way for a decade and a half under Nick Saban, and earlier under Bear Bryant in the 1960s and 1970s.
This August, only a few Alabama fans are talking about a 2026-27 Alabama national championship. With rare exceptions, the minds of Alabama fans are on when the Crimson Tide will become a championship contender again. Consistent with Alabama's storied tradition, the key word is 'when' rather than 'if'.
ESPN's FPI model gives Alabama a 3.8% probability of winning the 2026 National Championship. The largest probability is given to Ohio State at 17%. Two SEC teams, Texas at 12.8% and Georgia at 9.8%, are above the Crimson Tide. Alabama is only slightly ahead of LSU, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.
In July, Bill Connelly wrote an interesting piece about "ifs" for national title contenders. His list ranged from three 'ifs' teams to five 'ifs' teams. Texas, Georgia, and LSU were the only SEC teams among the nine, three 'ifs' teams. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma were 'four-ifs' teams. Alabama was one of three 'five-ifs' teams.
If Connelly's analysis has merit, 12 college football teams are more probable championship contenders than the Crimson Tide. Among the 15 teams profiled by Connelly, the Crimson Tide is a longshot.
How Alabama gets from longshot to contender
Let's presume four attributes will become reality for the Alabama Crimson Tide. A quarterback is outstanding; the offensive line is much improved; a running game is restored; and the defense is better at getting off the field on third down than it was last season.
Oct. 10 through Nov. 7 will bring four games and reveal whether Alabama is a true contender. Three of the opposing teams made Connelly's 'if' list of title contenders. Tennessee was added as one of three longer shots.
To survive with playoff and national championship aspirations intact, Alabama may need only two wins, but three wins would clearly make the '26 Crimson Tide a contender. Alabama, as the favorite, cannot afford to lose in other games.
Answers to what will happen don't come in August. In July, my prediction that Alabama would go 10-2 explained that the Crimson Tide's playoff hopes could sustain losses to Georgia and maybe even LSU. That would mean wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee, and not being upset by a South Carolina team that is likely to shock one or more favorites this season.
Perhaps the best thing about the coming season is that Alabama has much to prove to itself. That could provide fuel for serious national championship contention.
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