We're just a couple of days away from kickoff in a most surprising "game of the week" in college football. No. 10 Alabama against No. 16 and undefeated Vanderbilt is the talk of college football this week. College GameDay is in town for it. Truly, what a time to be alive.
Alabama is fresh off a monster road win over Georgia, and will be looking to avoid throwing away all the goodwill it earned from it a week later against Vanderbilt like it did last season. The difference this year is that the Commodores aren't sneaking up on the Crimson Tide: they're just flat out a good football team that is more than capable of knocking Alabama off if Kalen DeBoer can't get his team to play up to the standard.
Alabama players have said the right things this week, but we've heard all of that before. It's going to come down to execution, and which team can do it at a higher level.
Every week during our previews of matchups, we make some bold predictions for the upcoming game. Last week, we went 1-of-3 on those picks, or as I like to consider it, Hall-of-Fame baseball numbers.
We correctly predicted Ty Simpson would be at the forefront of the Heisman conversation after the game. We missed on a Lotzeir Brooks touchdown - though he did open some eyes last week - and Keon Sabb picking a pass off.
We'll try to do better this week.
3 bold predictions for Alabama football against Vanderbilt
Jam Miller eclipses 100 rushing yards
One of the biggest reasons for Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt a year ago was how soundly the Crimson Tide lost the time-of-possession battle. The Tide's defense couldn't get off the field on third down, and Alabama's boom-or-bust offense was either scoring quick touchdowns or going three-and-out.
I expect Alabama to want to establish the run early against the Commodores to maintain offensive balance and keep the defense from having to be on the field all afternoon again. That should lead to a heavy diet of senior Jam Miller, who was not on a pitch-count in his first game back from injury.
He carried the ball 16 times against Georgia, but only produced 46 yards. He produced 45 yards on just five carries against Vandy last season. I think Miller is going to have a big game, producing multiple big plays in the run game that Alabama has been looking for.
Ultimately, I see Miller getting his first 100-yard rushing day since Week 2 of last season.
Ryan Williams has a big day to bounce back...again
After Williams dropped three passes in a disappointing season opener against Florida State, he bounced back in his next game two weeks later with a 165-yard, two-touchdown performance against Wisconsin at home.
I think we'll see something similar this weekend.
Williams had a bad drop against Georgia on what should have been a long touchdown, but he did make a few clutch catches against the Bulldogs to move the chains in critical situations. Against Vanderbilt, I think he'll make an explosive play or two and find the endzone.
The star WR had 84 total yards and two touchdowns a year ago against the 'Dores.
Alabama holds Vanderbilt under 50% on third-downs
Alabama's third-down defense may be the most important piece of this game. Vanderbilt converted 12-of-18 on third down last season against the Tide, sustaining long drives and keeping Alabama's high-powered offense on the sidelines.
Vanderbilt will want to do the same thing this season. Led by Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt is third in the country in third-down offense, converting 59.5% of the time. On paper, that's bad news for an Alabama defense that ranks 89th in the country on third downs. But they performed well last week against Georgia, holding the Bulldogs to just 2-of-8.
Perhaps more importantly will be Alabama's first down defense against Vanderbilt. The 'Dores' offense is predicated on staying on schedule and getting four, five, or six yards on every first down. If they do that, they almost always move the chains. If Alabama can keep them in second and third-and-longs, it will throw off their gameplan, and the Tide should be able to get off the field and force some punts.
Kane Wommack knows that. The key will be whether he has a good enough plan to combat it.