In almost any other season, the low point for the Crimson Tide would have been a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt, but blowing a spot in the College Football Playoff with a blowout loss to Oklahoma may have surpassed it in 2024. It’ll take more than beating Vandy in Week 6 to get that bad taste of last year out of Alabama’s mouth, but coming off a matchup with Georgia in Week 5, it would be a good start.
The SEC slate is always going to be brutal, so even with Vandy making strides under head coach Clark Lea, the Commodores are still the softest conference opponent on Alabama’s schedule in 2025. With CFP expectations for DeBoer in Year 2, the Crimson Tide have to take care of business at home and find a way to slow down Diego Pavia after last year’s magical performance.
An Alabama bounce-back starts with slowing down Vanderbilt's passing game
In Vanderbilt’s win against Alabama last season, Diego Pavia, a former JUCO Quarterback who transferred from New Mexico State, torched Kane Wommack’s defense for 252 yards and two touchdowns on 16/20 passing with another 56 yards on the ground on 20 attempts. Those aren’t the most gaudy numbers, but, especially as a passer, Pavia was obscenely efficient, and there was nothing fluky about how he moved the ball against the Tide.
Maybe the best example of that efficiency is this stat: Vanderbilt finished with 418 total yards against Alabama with just three explosive plays. Vandy moved the ball consistently, relying on misdirection, not trickery, and the explosive plays it did get came in the exact right moments. Like this fourth-and-1 in the third quarter:
DIEGO PAVIA YOU MADMAN pic.twitter.com/R9y9a1IK0H
— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) October 5, 2024
Pavia finished with a 75 percent passing success rate and generated 1.13 EPA/dropback, soundly outplaying Milroe, who did his best to keep Alabama in the game despite a lackluster performance from its defense.
Alabama had one of the best linebacking corps in the entire country last year, led by eventual first-round NFL Draft pick Jihaad Campbell. However, Campbell, Deontae Lawson, and safety Malachi Moore were picked on in coverage, especially when the Vandy offense manipulated their eyes with play-action. Pavia went 9/9 on play-action dropbacks for 169 yards and both of his touchdowns. That’s 18.8 yards per attempt, and by NFL passer-rating metrics, was a perfect 158.3.
Wommack has to find an answer, not just for play-action, but for Pavia with his elusiveness, timely rushing ability, and willingness to stand in the pocket against pressure. Beating Vanderbilt starts with slowing down Pavia, and if Wommack fails to do it for the second straight season, he could be the first member of the staff on the hot seat, even before DeBoer.