This post is based on a presumption. The answer to whether the loss of Aden Holloway will cause Nate Oats to change his offensive style is no. Oats may tweak his schemes, but only slight adjustments can be chanced in tournament time. Alabama will continue to push pace, seek offensive efficiency by spacing, ball movement, and dishes from the paint to open shooters.
What Nate Oats is trying to do has never been done before. An axiom for college basketball NCAA Tournament Champions is that no team ranked below No. 30 in Defensive Efficiency can win the title. Going back to the 2005 season, National Champion Baylor was the lowest at No. 22 in Defensive Efficiency. Most champions since 2005 have been No. 11 or higher for the key stat. Four have been in the No. 13 to No. 18 range.
When the Alabama Crimson Tide made the Final Four in the 2024 season, it was ranked No. 111 in Defensive Efficiency. In the semi-final against UConn, the Huskies beat Alabama 86-72. With its current 23-9 record, Alabama is No. 67 in Defensive Efficiency.
Nate Oats has long sought better defensive performance. He got it in the 2023 season when the Crimson Tide was ranked No. 3. That season was very good offensively, ranked No. 20 in Offensive Efficiency, but it was not elite. The finish was a seven-point Sweet 16 loss to San Diego State. Alabama was even better defensively in the 2021 season, with a No. 3 (def) and somewhat less efficient offensively at No. 30. The result was a Sweet 16 overtime loss to UCLA.
Oats strives for his teams to be elite on both ends of the floor. He also knows that his high-tempo, five-out offense must make up for some defensive weaknesses. When Alabama's 'pace and space' offensive scheme is clicking, it is a thing of beauty.
As good as Oats' offensive system can perform, it is perhaps flawed in a unique aspect. The Crimson Tide leads college basketball with over 53% of its field-goal attempts coming from outside the arc. No team that shoots more threes than twos has ever won the NCAA Tournament. Last season's National Champion, Florida, had a 3pt. rate of 43.7% for the season and 45.3% in the national title game.
Three-Point Rate - NCAA Tournament Champions in Title Game
2025 - Florida Gators - 45.3%; 2024 UConn Huskies - 35.5%; 2023 U Conn Huskies - 31.1%; 2022 Kansas Jayhawks - 25.7%; 2021 Baylor Bears - 34.3%; 2019 Virginia Cavaliers - 40.6%; 2018 Villanova Wildcats - 47.3%; 2017 North Carolina Tar Heels - 36.9%; 2016 Villanova Wildcats - 29.1%; 2015 Duke Blue Devils - 21.6%; 2014 UConn Huskies - 35.8%; 2013 Louisville Cardinals - 26.2%; 2012 Kentucky Wildcats - 25%; 2011 UConn Huskies - 20%; 2010 Duke Blue Devils - 32.7%; 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels - 19.7%; 2008 Kansas Jayhawks - 21.8%; 2007 Florida Gators - 33.9%; 2006 Florida Gators - 32.7%; 2005 North Carolina Tar Heels - 30.7%.
Going back into the 20th century, the stats are consistent. Teams that shoot more threes than twos do not become NCAA Tournament Champions.
Note: Data provided by the NCAA, Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik