As it is with everything this time of year, it is all about the matchups. While Nate Oats should be given a ton of credit for getting to the Sweet 16 without one of its best players, the Michigan Wolverines loom large for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama has gotten past the Hofstra Pride and the Texas Tech Red Raiders by inserting London Jemison into the starting lineup with Aden Holloway out of it.
Truth be told, Alabama was not honestly tested in either contest from opening weekend. By going big vs. Hofstra, the Pride swallowed their pride in defeat 90-70 to the Crimson Tide. Interestingly enough, Texas Tech was even less of a match for Alabama, as the Crimson Tide wrangled them 90-65 in the Round of 32. So is Alabama will score 90 points for the third tournament game in a row Friday night?
For those who need a bit of a refresher, here is the big lineup Oats is rolling with, without Holloway...
- London Jemison
- Amari Allen
- Aiden Sherrell
- Labaron Philon Jr.
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr.
The team's best player in Labaron Philon Jr. and Aiden Sherrell are the only players on the Crimson Tide with 30 or more starts this season. Holloway had 27 in 28 games before he obviously had to be removed from the equation. Amari Allen has 23 starts coming in, while Latreel Wrightsell Jr. has 18. Jemison has 12 on his ledger, with Taylor Bol Bowen and Houston Mallette each having 10-plus, too.
Let's now unpack that while going big has worked thus far, it could be problematic facing Michigan.
Alabama will have to play its best game of the season to uspet Michigan
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Michigan will be laying a whopping 9.5 points vs. Alabama in this neutral-site affair. The associated moneylines coming in are Michigan -480 and Alabama +360. The projected point total comes out to a combined 174.5 points. Based off that, we could be looking at a potential final score somewhere in the vicinity of Michigan 92, Alabama 82.5. What a tough draw it is!
Part of the reason why Michigan is seen as such a heavy favorite is how adept they are in the frontcourt. Their best player is a forward in Yaxel Lendeborg. He, along with fellow big men Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr., love to rim run. Given that Michigan starts the same five players every game under Dusty May's watch, these guys have such great team chemistry in the frontcourt. This matters.
A few other key stats to keep in mind with Michigan is Wolverines love to score and attack the paint. They have the fourth-best field-goal percentage in the country, have attempted the fifth-most field goals, have made the fifth-highest percentage of 2-pointers, and have made the seventh-most field goals inside the 3-point line. Simply put, Jemison and the Alabama frontcourt will be tested mightily.
So what is Oats' team to do? They will have to make their shots from distance count. This can help cut into the deficit that could be created if Michigan does to go ultra-physical. It has been the Wolverines' calling card all season long. Why would they deviate from that? The good news is that nobody has attempted more 3-pointers this season than Alabama. They can make them, but they will take them!
Right now, Alabama needs to exceed is season-average clip of 36.1 percent from distance to win this.
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