No computer model drills deeper into efficiency calculations than Brian Fremeau's. In a new set of metrics Fremeau designed, Alabama stands out as arguably the best college football team.
Recently, Fremeau added to his array of calculations a category labeled Strength of Game Efficiency Ratings. He defines them: "Similar to 'strength of record' in format, this is based on how teams performed in each of four net drive efficiency categories rather than just win/loss outcome."
The dataset has four calculations on his CFB Playoff page. They are: "net points per drive (PDW), net available yards percentage (AYW), net yards per play (PPW), net drive success rate (SRW), and expected wins against the schedule for an average team."
Fremeau's ratings for Alabama are No. 3 (PDW), No. 1 (AYW), No. 2 (PPW), and No. 1 (SRW). Next closest to Alabama in the ratings is Texas, at No. 1, No. 4, No. 1, and No. 5, respectively. Next is Georgia at No. 6, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 2, respectively. The Tennessee Vols are rated No. 14, No. 14, No. 26, and No. 18.
Fremeau's overall team ratings use many other data points. His post-Week 10 ratings rank the Alabama Crimson Tide No. 4. The three teams above Alabama are Notre Dame, Georgia, and Miami. The next three, trailing the Crimson Tide, are LSU, Utah, and Texas. The rest of the top 12 are: Ohio State, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, and Indiana.
Alabama has quality wins
No. 14-ranked South Carolina is one spot higher than 9-0, No. 15 UCLA. Along with the Gamecocks and LSU, Alabama's other quality win is No. 19-ranked Kentucky.
Do Brian Fremeau's calculations indicate that the Crimson Tide is a legitimate national championship contender? My totally subjective answer is possibly. A different computer model, ESPN's FPI, ranks Alabama's probability of winning at14.8%. Georgia is No. 1 at 19.2%.
Check out: A prediction for the Crimson Tide's Tuesday night Playoff ranking.
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