Ahead of Tuesday night's penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, oddsmakers are confident in Alabama football's playoff positioning.
Based on chalk holding last week, it appeared there was a very real nightmare scenario in which the Crimson Tide could lose to Georgia in Saturday's SEC Championship Game and fall out of the College Football Playoff field. That scenario revolves around BYU pulling an upset over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. Along with an Alabama loss, it could bump the Tide out.
Vegas clearly disagrees.
The updated odds on FanDuel show that oddsmakers are pretty confident that Alabama will be in the playoff regardless of what happens in the SEC or Big 12 Championship Games.
Alabama is currently at -2000 to make the playoff. If you wanted to bet against the Crimson Tide getting in, those odds are at +920. That means you can bet $100 and win $920 if Alabama misses the playoff. It would cost you a $2000 bet to win $100 for Alabama making the playoff.
That means FanDuel - and numerous other oddsmakers - have exposed themselves to major losses if Alabama misses the College Football Playoff. They wouldn't be doing that if ESPN's "Playoff Predictor" were even remotely accurate. As of Monday night, ESPN's metrics gave the Crimson Tide only a 39% chance of making the playoff if they lost to Georgia.
Someone is clearly wrong. It's probably not the people with real money at stake.
Oddsmakers are telling you Alabama is a College Football Playoff lock already
Based on the betting odds, don't be surprised if the committee rectifies a mistake during Tuesday night's rankings reveal. That mistake was dropping Alabama below Notre Dame to begin with. Based on the current betting odds to miss the CFP, it seems likely that the Crimson Tide is going to jump ahead of the Irish into the 9-spot, assuring their spot in the playoff and leaving Notre Dame on the chopping block depending on the outcome of the Big 12 Championship Game.
FanDuel lists Notre Dame's odds of missing the playoff at +285. That just so happens to be the same opening number for BYU to win the Big 12. That tells you that oddsmakers are comfortable in believing it's Notre Dame's fate that will be tied to the Big 12 Championship Game - not Alabama's.
We'll find out for sure tonight based on the penultimate rankings. Regardless, this year's selection committee has been so inconsistent in what metrics matter and which don't that Alabama would be best served to handle their business and beat Georgia on Saturday anyway to avoid leaving their fate in someone else's hands.