Alabama and Oklahoma are similar teams. Both have offenses that have really struggled over the last month. Injuries have piled up for both, leading to lots of frustrating possessions with the ball in their hands.
Both also have elite defenses that have consistently kept them afloat through long stretches of mediocrity on offense. You'd give Alabama the slight edge offensively, and you'd give Oklahoma the slight edge defensively.
The rankings for each unit via Bill Connelly's SP+ metric:
Offense:
Alabama: 26th
Oklahoma: 49th
Defense:
Alabama: 8th
Oklahoma: 3rd
It's a pretty even matchup, likely favoring the Crimson Tide, ever so slightly.
Until you get to special teams.
Special Teams:
Alabama: 113th
Oklahoma: 21st
That's where the game finds its biggest mismatch. And it was pivotal during Alabama's two-point regular-season loss to Oklahoma a month ago.
Oklahoma's Tate Sandell is one of the best kickers in the country, connecting on 23-of-24 field goal attempts this year. He was a perfect 3-of-3 against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, including a 52-yarder.
Alabama's Conor Talty has been much less reliable. He is just 13-of-20 on the season and missed his only field goal attempt against Oklahoma last month. It was a 36-yarder that may have gotten slightly tipped by an Oklahoma defensive lineman, but Talty's reaction to the miss led to a whole lot of scorn by the Tide fanbase.
It's not just the place kicking where Oklahoma has the edge, either. Oklahoma punter Grayson Miller pinned Alabama inside the 20 three times, something that Alabama's Blake Doud couldn't replicate. Ryan Williams compounded the special teams blunders with a fumble on a punt return.
The two offensive turnovers were pivotal, no doubt, but Alabama beats Oklahoma last month with just mildly competent special teams play rather than the outright disaster from that November afternoon.
Heading into Friday night's rematch, Mother Nature may be doing the Crimson Tide a solid.
High winds could mitigate Oklahoma's special teams advantage in the CFP
20-30 miles-per-hour winds are expected in Norman during tonight's College Football Playoff matchup, with gusts potentially getting up to 40 mph.
That's not great news for two offenses that have struggled mightily to run the football this season. It's also not great news for the kicking game.
And that's a-okay with Kalen DeBoer and Alabama. The Crimson Tide doesn't have a whole lot of confidence in Talty on any kicks to begin with, so they would likely be prepared to go for it on any 4th downs of five yards or less.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has one of the most reliable kickers in the country. Sandell won this year's Lou Groza Award as the nation's top kicker, and the Sooners will look to get points every time they are in field goal range.
But even elite kickers struggle with high winds.
Alabama may get an assist from Mother Nature that removes Oklahoma's biggest advantage.