With the talking season almost over, it is time for two Alabama Football predictions. One is the score for Alabama vs. Florida State. A more weighty prediction is the Alabama Crimson Tide's record for the 2025 regular season.
Let's start by reviewing a few other prediction sources. FanDuel has Alabama favored over FSU by 13.5 points. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 90.6% probability of winning over the Noles.
The game could play out in varied ways, with FSU possibly getting a boost from the weather. Gus Malzahn might have a plan, with some surprises, that gains success against Kane Wommack's defense via option plays and Thomas Castellanos' feet. My take is neither of those things will be enough. Alabama will win and cover with a score of 31-17. A different scenario is Alabama holds nothing back from its playbooks and crushes FSU by 21 to 27 points. For what it is worth, the probability of Tim Keenan III not being 100% against FSU does not change my prediction.
If Alabama wins easily, it will be interesting to see which backup quarterback possibly gets a drive or two with the first unit. I expect Austin Mack and Keelon Russell will play, but mostly with offensive backups.
Alabama Crimson Tide Regular Season Record
In early August, I predicted the Crimson Tide would finish the regular season at 10-2. Recently, Josh Pate also provided a 10-2 prediction, with Bama vs. 10-2 Texas in the SEC Championship Game.
My further speculation is that Alabama has a slightly better chance of going 11-1 than 9-3. My guess is a 22% probability of 11-1 and a 20% probability of 9-3. Another pair of guesses is a 10% probability for an 8-4 record and a 4% probability of a 12-0 record. I call my predictions guesses because no models are used. To compare, the ESPN FPI gives Alabama a 2.1% probability of a 12-0 regular season.
So which two teams trip up the Crimson Tide? I think by the end of the season, Alabama will be a better team than Georgia. Even so, I predict the Bulldogs will prevail in Athens by a thin margin. It might even come down to Alabama missing a field goal. My prediction of a second loss is at South Carolina the week after Alabama beats Tennessee.