Computer models produce probabilities, not certainties. The NCAA Tournament numbers for Alabama Basketball and other SEC teams are clues to how well or how poorly teams may perform. But dynamics in a game can produce different results. Teams will underperform and outperform the projections.
There is no shortage of models. This post uses data from Bart Torvik, Evan Miyakawa, and ESPN, BPI.
Alabama Basketball NCAA Tournament Projections
Probability projections for the Alabama Crimson Tide to beat Hofstra are: 83.6% (Torvik), 87.1% (Miyakawa), and 90.1% (ESPN BPI). To win a Round of 32 game, they are: 44.3% (Torvik), 64.4% (ESPN BPI), and 65.9% (Miyakawa). Alabama advancing to the Elite Eight is: 8.3% (Miyakawa), 16.3% (Torvik), and 19.2% (ESPN BPI). Alabama reaching the Final Four is: 3.2% (Miyakawa), 7.3% (Torvik), and 8.1% (ESPN BPI).
For the SEC's four other top teams in the Big Dance, the probabilities by round are: Round of 32: Florida 99.8%, 99.2%, and 96.6%; Arkansas 95.3%, 91.6%, and 83.6%; Vanderbilt 93%, 86.7%, and 81.2%; Tennessee 80.2%, 78.5%, and 78%.
Sweet 16 probabilities are: Florida 86.4%, 85.7%, and 77.2%; Arkansas 65.9%, 65.7%, and 44.2%; Vanderbilt 61.9%, 54.2%, and 36.9%; Tennessee 42.9%, 39.2%, and 38.6%.
Elite Eight probabilities are: Florida 65.6%; 60.2%, and 52.3%; Vanderbilt 31.9%, 17.9%, and 13.9%; Arkansas 18.7%, 16.7%, and 14.5%; Tennessee 17.1%, 16.8%, and 14.4%.
Final Four probabilities are: Florida 39.9%, 31.4%, and 30.8%; Vanderbilt 14.3%, 6.3%, and 5%; Arkansas 7%, 6,5%, and 5.7%; Tennessee 7.5%, 6.5%, and 2.9%.
For those more interested in subjective opinions than analytics, CBS Sports' Matt Norlander ranked all 68 NCAA Tournament teams. Among the SEC teams, Norlander has Florida No. 5, Arkansas No. 13, Vanderbilt No. 14, Alabama No. 16, and Tennessee No. 21.
Note: All the computer models were generated before the news of Aden Holloway's arrest for marijuana possession. If Alabama suspends Holloway for multiple games, that would change the probabilities.