On the eve of Alabama's matchup against Indiana in the Rose Bowl for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, the betting odds have begun to shift. And not in a positive direction for the Crimson Tide.
After opening as a 6.5-point underdog, the spread has hung out there for most of the almost two weeks between Alabama's win over Oklahoma and the New Year's Day showdown with top-ranked Indiana. But on Wednesday, the odds have swung even further in the direction of the Hoosiers.
As of 9am CT on New Year's Eve, FanDuel has pushed the spread to Indiana -7.5.
That points to sharp bettors, who typically wait until late in the week to see what side the public is on, to hammer the Indiana line. Sharps aren't always correct, but they play the odds that Vegas is going to win more times than not. That's how they can afford those gigantic casinos on the Strip, after all.
The spread is actually favorable for Alabama compared to the analytics. Bill Connelly's SP+ sees Indiana as more of a two-touchdown favorite over the Crimson Tide.
Indiana is now an even bigger favorite over Alabama on Rose Bowl eve
The good news for Alabama is that this exact thing happened ahead of its opening round matchup against Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff nearly two weeks ago.
Alabama spent the majority of the lead-up to the game as 1.5-point favorites. A day before the game, however, the odds shifted in a major way toward the Sooners, with FanDuel installing Oklahoma as 1.5-point favorites. That was a three-point swing, pointing toward a lot of late money coming in on the home team.
That looked prophetic when Oklahoma took a 17-0 lead, but it all came crashing down as Alabama rallied for a 34-24 win.
Kalen DeBoer hopes his team can replicate that in Pasadena on Thursday, perhaps without the anxiety-inducing early deficit.
This marks the third consecutive game, and fourth time this season, that Alabama has been an underdog. It's the largest underdog the Crimson Tide has been since the 2021 SEC Championship Game, when Georgia was a near-touchdown favorite. Alabama won that game 41-24.
Hopefully history will repeat itself on New Year's Day.