There haven't been many experts this week willing to go out on a limb and project an outright win for 4-seeded Alabama against 1-seeded Michigan.
But at least one betting market is showing some shifting optimism that the Crimson Tide might not be as doomed as originally thought.
Alabama opened with long odds, with FanDuel listing the Tide as a 10.5-point underdog against the Wolverines. Historically, double-digit underdogs have not fared well in the Sweet 16. Since the field expanded in 1985, those underdogs are just 3-37 straight up against the favorites.
That's no longer a concern for the Crimson Tide.
As of Friday morning, the line has swung two full points since it opened. Alabama is now just an 8.5-point underdog.
Alabama is now only an 8.5-point underdog against Michigan
That two-point swing doesn't mean Alabama is going to ultimately win this game, but there appears to be some growing optimism that the Crimson Tide can keep this game competitive. If they can, this battle-tested group might have a chance to steal the game at the end and stun the nation.
Nate Oats is certainly doing everything he can to devise the perfect gameplan to put his team in the best possible position to take down the Wolverines. Labaron Philon shared that his head coach was "losing sleep" over it.
It's going to take a monumental effort, but with the way Oats schedules, Alabama certainly won't be intimidated by what has been a dominant Michigan team this year. In non-conference play, the Crimson Tide played games against St. John's, Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga, and Arizona.
Michigan presents a world of issues, but Alabama has played outstanding basketball in the first two rounds of March Madness. If you only look at Bart Torvik's data for the NCAA Tournament, Alabama has played like the 4th best team in college basketball.
Alabama's hot shooting performance against Texas Tech helped, but the most stark change in the Big Dance has been a renewed focus and effort on the defensive end of the floor.
It'll take both of those things for the Crimson Tide to have a shot at stunning the Wolverines and advancing to the Elite Eight for the third straight season.
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