It's Iron Bowl week, and the game couldn't be bigger for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Everything is on the line at Jordan-Hare for Kalen DeBoer and his team. A win on the Plains will clinch the Crimson Tide's spot in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta the following week. It would also, more likely than not, be enough to secure Alabama a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens in Atlanta.
None of those scenarios mean a thing if Alabama can't get the job done in the Iron Bowl.
Despite Alabama's 9-2 record and Auburn sitting at 5-6, you would think those records were reversed based on the narratives heading into this game. There seems to be more confidence from the Auburn fanbase than that of Alabama's.
That is in spite of the difference in the team's qualities and the fact that Alabama is sporting a five-game Iron Bowl winning streak. But Jordan-Hare has long been a house of horrors for the Crimson Tide, and the last two Iron Bowls played there came down to the wire despite a similar difference in team quality.
It took Alabama four overtimes to escape in 2021, and then a 4th-and-31 miracle by Jalen Milroe to win two years ago.
Despite the anxiety emanating from Tuscaloosa, the spread is moving in a positive direction for Alabama fans. After originally opening at Alabama -5.5, the spread trickled down to -3.5 at several books. Just yesterday, FanDuel had it at Alabama -4.5. As of Monday morning, the Crimson Tide is back to a 5.5-point favorite according to FanDuel, showing there's more faith by early bettors and the oddsmakers than the Tide fanbase.
Alabama is once again a 5.5 point favorite over Auburn on the road
Alabama being a 5.5-point favorite should be somewhat comforting for Alabama fans. Major upsets in the Iron Bowl don't happen all that often. As we wrote about on Sunday, Alabama has only lost two Iron Bowls in the last 50 years in which they were favored by four or more points.
And both of those games were against really good Auburn teams in 2013 and 2017. This is not a really good Auburn team, though the Tigers have certainly played better since firing Hugh Freeze.
It's doubtful that betting odds will be of any comfort to nervous Alabama fans. They ultimately mean very little, and how the Tide performs on the field is what will ultimately decide the game. But the spread moving in the right direction early in the week is a good indicator that the narrative you are being fed is a bit overblown.