As predicted on Monday, on Tuesday night, the CFB Playoff Selection committee ranked Oregon and Notre Dame above the Alabama Crimson Tide. Oregon was ranked No. 7. Notre Dame was ranked No. 9, with the Crimson Tide at No. 10.
At 9-1, the Ducks, on overall record alone, should be ranked above Alabama. But other data points suggest a different ranking. Oregon has played a No. 31 Strength of Schedule (SOS) and has zero wins over ranked teams. Alabama has an SOS of No. 4 and four wins over ranked teams.
Like Alabama, the Fighting Irish have two losses. Notre Dame has one win over a ranked team, USC, now ranked No. 15 by the committee. The Crimson Tide has four wins over ranked teams, including the best-ranked win, over now committee-ranked No. 4 Georgia. Notre Dame's SOS is No. 29 and a Strength of Record (SOR) of No. 12. Alabama's SOR is No. 8.
Since the Irish and the Tide each have two losses, the Tide's better SOR, SOS, and far better resume of wins over ranked teams should have Alabama ranked higher than Notre Dame.
Selection committees never come close to full disclosure about their decisions. In fairness, doing so would risk such backlash that being tight-lipped is probably prudent. Murkiness results and unanswered questions can only be addressed by supposition. Alabama football fans can fairly suppose that to the committee, losses against better teams damage rankings less than ranked wins help.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Notre Dame - and perception
There is in Alabama's storied history a result in which Notre Dame was unjustifiably valued higher than the Crimson Tide. It cost Alabama a deserved three-peat National Championship. What happened in 1966 has zero bearing on now. But the Fighting Irish are one of the most consistently overrated programs in college football. It appears to be happening this season as well.
Notre Dame has six wins over Power Four teams. Those six teams have a combined record of 25-37 (40.3%). Alabama has seven wins over Power Four teams. The seven have a combined record of 43-27 (61.4%).
Again with little added detail, new Selection Committee chair Hunter Yuracek said, the No. 8, No. 9, and No. 10 rankings are tightly bunched. The Irish finish with two 3-7 teams, Syracuse and Stanford. There appears to be next to no chance Notre Dame will drop below No. 9 in the final rankings. Alabama will get zero boosts from wins over a cupcake and Auburn. So it also appears Alabama is locked in as a playoff road team. Unless the Crimson Tide wins the SEC Championship Game, or is blown out in that game and misses the playoffs entirely.
At one time, a first-game loss, even a bad one, could become deeply discounted by the season's end. Instead, this season, the Alabama Crimson Tide is being heavily punished by the bad loss to FSU. And Notre Dame is getting the benefit of more favorable human judgment than the Crimson Tide.
Note: SOS and SOR rankings provided by ESPN