On his way out of Alabama, Ty Simpson got the stamp of approval from the NFL that he would be a first-round pick, and though his measurables weren’t particularly impressive at the NFL Scouting Combine, there hasn’t been much indication that has changed.
Yet, even in a league that is desperate for more starting-caliber quarterbacks, Simpson doesn’t have an obvious first-round landing spot. Many mock drafts have him slipping well into the latter half of the first round and, at times, even require a team trading back into the round to stop his slide.
Now, Tua Tagovailoa is on the market after being released by the Dolphins with a post-June 1 designation on Monday. On its face, the news appears as though it creates another potential suitor for Simpson, but in actuality, it could damage his market.
Teams may prefer a low-cost bet on Tua over spending a first-round pick on Ty Simpson
Whether the Dolphins were releasing Tua or not was a question of whether or not they were willing to eat $99 million in dead money over two years. It was not a question of whether new head coach Jeff Hafley and his staff believed in the former first-round pick as the franchise QB.
From the moment Tua was benched last season, the writing was on the wall. So, even with Tua on the roster, the Dolphins were a potential destination for Simpson. But now Tua, who will likely sign for the veteran minimum of $1.3 million because of the offset language in his contract with Miami, is a low-risk option that a QB-needy team may bet on instead of investing a first-round pick in Simpson.
At this point in his career, with concussion issues and a devastating hip injury in his past, Tua has physical limitations that will always put a ceiling on his NFL upside. Still, he is two years removed from leading the league in passing yards and has proven to be a solid processor in an RPO-heavy system. There’s no guarantee that Simpson ever reaches that level of competency at the next level.
Simpson is a promising prospect, but with size concerns and a small body of work, he’s a risky bet in the first round. For NFL general managers, priority No. 1 is to keep the job, and a low-cost bet on Tua isn’t something that will get you fired, but missing on a first-round QB will.
The Dolphins may be the team that drafts Simpson, but if that’s the case, they likely would have done so regardless of whether or not Tua was still on the roster or not. Plus, now with $99 million in dead money on the books, they’re in no position to build around a rookie QB.