Week 14 12-team College Football Playoff prediction: Alabama set to sneak in?

The chaos of week 13 continued into week 14, culminating in a wild rivalry weekend to close out the 2024 college football regular season. 

The conference championship matchups are now set, and we are just a few data points away from the official reveal of the first ever 12-team playoff field. 

While SEC teams like Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M were upset and appeared to blow prime playoff opportunities last week, ACC contenders Miami and Clemson were undercut this weekend. Those losses may have been enough to leave the door open for a 3-loss SEC team.

Here is my final College Football Playoff prediction of the regular season:

Shake-up in Big Ten title game

Oregon continued to take care of business, delivering a drama-free win over Washington to finish the regular season undefeated. Assuming the Ducks can take care of business in the conference title game, they will be the top overall seed in the 12-team playoff field. 

The job should be a little easier, at least in theory, as Oregon will now face Penn State instead of a highly-anticipated rematch with Ohio State. 

Ohio State losing to Michigan for the fourth straight year was perhaps the shock of the weekend. The Buckeyes gave their hated rival bragging rights once again, in addition to costing themselves a chance to play in the Big Ten title game. Regardless, they should be firmly in the playoff field as an at-large team. 

While several Big Ten contenders have played pitiful schedules, Ohio State’s was one of the more formidable. Wins over fellow playoff teams Indiana and Penn State are more than enough to keep Ryan Day’s squad afloat. 

Will a 3-loss SEC team sneak in?

Texas’ convincing win over Texas A&M in College Station cemented a massive rematch between the Longhorns and the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs dominated Texas on its home field earlier this season, and the Longhorns will certainly be seeking revenge. 

These are two of the best teams in the nation. I expect the game to be very entertaining (unlike the first matchup), and I believe both teams will make the playoff field. I am predicting Georgia to win the game and earn a first-round bye while Texas edges out Penn State and Ohio State for the top at-large spot. In this scenario, Texas would host Boise State for the right to play Arizona State in the quarterfinals.

While it will be close, I think there was just enough carnage around the college football world for Alabama to backdoor its way into the playoff. This Crimson Tide team has been wildly inconsistent and frustrating to watch, but few would argue that it can compete with anybody in the field at its best.

If Bama can secure the final at-large spot like it does in this prediction, the Tide would head up to Happy Valley to play Big Ten runner-up Penn State. 

Fellow 3-loss SEC teams such as South Carolina and Ole Miss also have impressive resumes and could make a claim to the final at-large bid.  

One-bid ACC and Big 12

In early November, Miami was undefeated and looked like a near lock to make the playoff. With their season on the line, the Hurricanes were upset by unranked opponents in two of their final three games. Just like that, they will miss the ACC Championship game. Even worse, Miami doesn’t have any quality wins to lean on and is in serious danger of missing the playoffs entirely. I have the Canes outside the field in my prediction. 

Even in losing a non-conference game to in-state rival South Carolina, Clemson was a winner this weekend. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers were the beneficiary of Miami’s blunder and will appear in the ACC title game for one last chance to make the playoff field.

Even as a 3-loss team, Clemson will probably be a fairly significant favorite over conference newcomer SMU. In my prediction, the Mustangs pull the upset, securing a first-round bye and making the ACC a one-bid league. 

The Big 12 was incredibly closely contested, with four teams finishing the season with identical 7-2 league records. With the tiebreakers in effect, it’s now official that Iowa State will face Arizona State for the conference title. I think the Sun Devils stay hot and get the win, becoming the Big 12’s only playoff bid. 

Independents & Group of Five

Notre Dame kept rival USC at arm’s length, managing to finish the regular season 11-1 after an inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois back in September. Its resume isn’t eye-popping by any means, but Notre Dame has conducted itself in a businesslike fashion, winning almost all of its games by double-digits. 

The Irish will receive an at-large bid, traveling to Knoxville to take on Tennessee in this prediction. 

Boise State is the best Group of Five team in the country. They aren’t extremely flashy, but they lean on their bellcow running back (Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty) and consistently take care of business against inferior competition. 

Beating UNLV for the second time this season will be easier said than done, but the Rebels are all that stand between Boise State and the College Football Playoff. If the Broncos falter, the final auto-bid could go to the Rebels, or perhaps to Tulane if the Green Wave can beat Army in the AAC Championship game.