A significantly rebuilt and often maligned Alabama Crimson Tide offense will have growing pains. At quarterback, sophomore Keelon Russell goes into the season with a college career of 15 pass attempts and three rushes. The offensive line has four or five new starters, depending on how Michael Carroll at guard is counted. Alabama's go-to receiver from last season is in the NFL. The Tide's No. 3 receiver from last season 'took the money' and ran to College Station.
All of the above justifies the profusion of low preseason expectations for the Crimson Tide. Alabama fans know to look beyond outsider opinions. Yes, the Alabama offense will have growing pains. An added scary yes is that predicting how much the offensive line will improve is just guessing.
However, there is reason for more than a little optimism. All preseason algorithms are suspect, but not without merit. Brian Freneau provides the best preseason ratings for college football teams. Freneau combines his FEI model with Bill Connelly's SP+ model to create the F+ ratings of all FBS teams.
The F+ ratings have Alabama as college football's No. 8 team, with a defensive rating (DF+) of No. 8. The Tide's offense is No. 15. Alabama's overall rating is lowered by a SF+ (Special Teams) rating of No. 82.
Alabama offense has time to mature
The Crimson Tide does not have an easy schedule. It does have a scheduling advantage that will mitigate the Crimson Tide's early-season growing pains. Based on Freneau's model in Alabama's first five games, the Crimson Tide offense will battle no defense ranked higher than No. 20. That defense is Game 4 opponent, South Carolina. Kentucky is No. 28; Florida State is No. 37; East Carolina is No. 55; and Mississippi State is No. 62.
The four teams Alabama plays with the highest defensive ratings begin with the Georgia game on Oct. 10. LSU is next at No. 12, closely followed by Texas A&M at No. 13. Auburn is at No. 15. Jim Knowles on the Tennessee staff may save Josh Heupel's job. Still, the Vols' defense is rated No. 35.
Before any Alabama fans drift into giddy optimism, remember that even if these ratings are accurate, the difference between a No. 15 rating and a No. 35 rating does not alone predict a game's outcome. Freneau has yet to publish 2026 game predictions, but the very bullish on Alabama Massey Ratings have the Crimson Tide squeezing by in Knoxville, 30-28.
It's Official - Keelon is The Man
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