The Alabama basketball fanbase took a body blow on Monday. Losing Aden Holloway following his drug possession arrest made the Crimson Tide's offensive firepower less. Nate Oats believes that losing one of its many guards was not as bad for the Tide as losing a frontcourt player. Technically, based on roster numbers and skills, Oats is correct. But Holloway's departure is a disproportionate loss. He was more than Alabama's second-leading scorer. Holloway provided game-changing talent and fearless play.
Hofstra has become a trendy pick for an NCAA Tournament First Round upset. The Pride are bigger than Alabama. They rebound better. The two teams have a 'tortoise and a hare' difference in tempo, and some experts predict the tortoise will frustrate the hare.
Let's dig deeper.
Using computer ratings produced by Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik, Hofstra is college basketball's No. 87 team (KPom) and No. 90 (Torvik). The Pride's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is rated No. 87 by Pomeroy and No. 99 by Torvik. Their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is rated No. 95 by Pomeroy and No. 92 by Torvik.
Hofstra's reputation as a good (not great) defensive team is based on being No. 3 in Division One in two-point defense. Their defense of three-point shooting is not nearly as good, ranked No. 75.
With solid defense and a slow tempo, Hofstra holds down the scoring output of opponents. Ken Pomeroy's model calculates that Hofstra has done that against a SOS of No. 224, based on opponent offense. Even minus Aden Holloway's production, Hofstra has not tried to contain an offense comparable to Alabama.
In Hofstra's 10 losses this season, opponents only needed to score an average of 75.3 points. Alabama has scored 75 points or fewer in only two games this season. Those Alabama games were losses to Arizona and Tennessee. Based on Torvik's model, Arizona has college basketball's 3rd-best defense, and the Vols are No. 16. Hofstra's defensive ability is not comparable to either team.
No Big Dance Alabam Basketball Three-Point Slumps
Alabama must shoot threes well on Friday. Latrell Wrightsell, Amari Allen, and Houston Mallette cannot continue their recent three-point shooting slumps. At least two of them must return to form. But the Crimson Tide will not have to sizzle from outside the arc to beat the Hofstra Pride.
Bart Torvik's model has Alabama winning by a dozen points. The Crimson Tide may not reach the 87 points projected by the model, but it will not need that much scoring to beat Hofstra.