At 7-1, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a reasonable shot at finishing the regular season at 11-1. Even with one more loss, the 10-2 Crimson Tide would be likely to advance to the SEC Championship Game. Whatever happened in Atlanta, Alabama, would make the Playoff field.
The Crimson Tide has three tough regular-season games remaining. Two of them now look tougher than they did a week ago. Don't be misled by the 12.5 point spread favoring Alabama against LSU. LSU will be a harder team to beat without Brian Kelly than it would have been with him. Hugh Freeze's shaky situation at Auburn has improved with the Auburn coach apparently giving up on Jackson Arnold. If Freeze and Auburn can find a way to beat Vanderbilt, Nov. 29 in Jordan-Hare will be the 'Superest' of Auburn's 'Super Bowls' against the Crimson Tide. Thanks to its defense, Oklahoma is the best team Alabama faces in November.
Alabama Crimson Tide will run the remaining regular season table
- The Crimson Tide has momentum. The ups, downs, and comebacks in the seven games after the FSU loss have given Alabama huge doses of confidence and belief that it can overcome any obstacle.
- For good reason, the Crimson Tide will be favored in every game. Whatever improvements LSU interim Frank Martin and Hugh Freeze can achieve with their rosters, Alabama is the better team. LSU's offense, rated No. 38 by Brian Fremeau, and Auburn's offense, rated No. 53, will not improve enough to beat Alabama.
- The Sooners have the best chance for an upset with an opponent-adjusted defense ranked No. 6. But like the two teams of Tigers, the Sooners' offense, ranked No. 37 is not close to Alabama, with the Crimson Tide ranked No. 6. And the Alabama defense has improved considerably and is now ranked No. 10.
Why Alabama will not finish the regular season 11-1
- Despite the Crimson Tide's improvement, troubling weaknesses persist. Kane Wommack's run defense was excellent against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to a sack-adjusted 3.5 yards average. But against SEC teams, Alabama is last among all SEC teams, allowing 5.19 yards per carry.
- Alabama's inside run game is seriously lacking. Fremeau's opponent-adjusted rankings have Oklahoma as college football's No. 6 defense and Auburn at No. 8. In SEC games, the Sooners allow a 2.57-yard average run. Auburn is almost as good at 2.76 yards.
- If any of the LSU, Oklahoma, or Auburn games become close contests, Alabama's opponents have a Special Teams advantage.
- Any or all of bad luck, injuries, or bad calls by officials could trip up the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has work left to do. The Crimson Tide is not yet a team of destiny. It is good enough to reach elite status by December, regardless of the outcomes in the remaining regular-season games.