The question in the title of this post is no joke. The joke is that Alabama Football's playoff chances might be determined more by opinion than fact.
Last Tuesday, the Playoff Selection Committee dropped the Alabama Crimson Tide six spots in the rankings. One explanation from committee chair Hunter Yurachek was that Alabama's rushing offense was lacking. Evidently, producing 406 yards against one of college football's best defenses in Oklahoma was not impressive. Apparently, a two-point loss to OU negated the fact that the Crimson Tide has college football's best win this season. And that Alabama has wins over four ranked teams.
Against lowly Eastern Illinois, Alabama sensibly gained all of its 56 points from rushing touchdowns and PATs.
Alabama Football and Unfair Ranking
Paul Finebaum claimed that Alabama and Miami were unfairly ranked due to the committee's bias in favor of Notre Dame. The committee mostly flies above the slings and arrows of criticism in its thankless task. But tarnished credibility must worry some committee members.
Maybe there is subconscious bias, but a better complaint is what makes the committee's athletic directors believe they have the expertise to break down game film. Of course, they don't have time to do it. Others do such tasks for them, but shouldn't the ADs on the committee stick to evaluating the body of work among contenders?
Four metrics long acknowledged by the committee as important are: wins over ranked teams, Strength of Schedule (SOS), Strength of Record (SOR), and Game Control (GC). Alabama Football is rated above the Fighting Irish in three of the four metrics. Notre Dame has a GC No. 5 and Alabama is No. 9. SOR is close with Alabama No. 9 and Notre Dane No. 12. Ranked wins and SOS heavily favor the Alabama Crimson Tide.
In Week 13 games, the Crimson Tide got little help for its playoff chances. Notre Dame, Oregon, Oklahoma, BYU, and Utah all won. Vanderbilt's win over Kentucky did clear the Tide's path to the SEC Championship Game. An Alabama Iron Bowl win will get the Tide to Atlanta via applicable tiebreakers. It is possible that advancing to the SEC Championship Game will harm Alabama's playoff chances.
SMU made the playoffs last season after losing the ACC Championship Game. If the Selection Committee was guided by precedent rather than conjuring determinants on the fly, an Iron Bowl win and a respectable loss in Atlanta should be enough. Instead, on Tuesday night, Hunter Yurachek may reference Alabama's placekicking woes.
Note: Team data provided by the ESPN FPI