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Alabama Basketball: Best case Scenario for Crimson Tide in 2016-17

By Thomas Jenkins

Jan 13, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Arthur Edwards (4) congratulates forward Riley Norris (1) on hitting a three point shot during against South Carolina Gamecocks at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 13, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Arthur Edwards (4) congratulates forward Riley Norris (1) on hitting a three point shot during against South Carolina Gamecocks at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports /
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Alabama Basketball season tickets are now on sale, and basketball is drawing closer by the day. Here’s what Tide fans can expect.

For those considering buying tickets to one or multiple games, it’s worth asking what the product that Alabama puts on the court will look like. This team easily outperformed expectations last season, but roster turnover (and a somewhat disappointing finish) make this year’s prospects somewhat unclear.

While this team’s exact outlook will be unknown for some time, here is a glimpse at the best case scenario for Alabama. In other words, this is what could happen if everything breaks right. The exact future is uncertain, but the ceiling for the 2016-17 Crimson Tide is higher than it has been in several years.

The absolute (reasonable) best case scenario for Alabama this year is to finish near the top of the SEC and earn a ticket to the NCAA tournament.

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The path to this finish is difficult, but certainly manageable. While losing players like Retin Obasohan and Justin Coleman hurts, this team still has many talented players (like Jimmie Taylor and Shannon Hale) that Avery Johnson can lean on for production. If these two play at a high level, and Riley Norris shoots three pointers at a high percentage again, Alabama will have a solid foundation to build on.

Dazon Ingram is another key player. He missed almost all of last season, and — because of that — it is easy to forget how well he played before his injury. Although the sample size is small, his field goal percentage (54.1%) and points per game (7.7) both point to a potential breakout year if he can stay healthy.

The final piece of the roster is the graduate transfers. If Bola Olaniyan and Corban Collins play well at all, Alabama will have a solid cast of good (if not elite) talent. If either of these two players exceed expectations, the Crimson Tide’s ceiling looks much more realistic.

Finally, there’s the coach. Avery Johnson has done everything that could have been expected of him in year one, and looks to improve this season. It may be asking too much to expect fantastic seasons from some of the players on this roster, but expecting Johnson to coach well again is almost a guarantee.

In the absolute best case scenario, Alabama blitzes through the easier games on the non-conference schedule. Then, they play more difficult games well enough to enter SEC play with a record of 11-2 or better. None of the 18 conference games look unwinnable (except Kentucky), but the grind of constant SEC opponents will be difficult. The best case scenario here is most likely 12 or 13 wins.

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Going by the most optimistic outlook, then, Alabama could finish the season with a record of 24-7. This projection is (admittedly) extremely optimistic, but it’s impossible to rule out this level of success from Alabama. If this roster exceeds expectations, if Johnson continues to coach at a high level, and if teams like Texas A&M or LSU take a step back, Alabama could be primed to make a huge leap and finish near the top of the SEC this season.

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