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College Gameday: Hey Corso! Don’t Pick Bama!

By Meredith Hornsby

Sep 5, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Guest picker Brad Paisley and Lee Corso and Chase Herbstreit (age 9) and Kirk Herbstreit as Corso picks the head gear of "Big Al" the Alabama mascot on the set during the live broadcast of ESPN College GameDay at Sundance Square. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 5, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Guest picker Brad Paisley and Lee Corso and Chase Herbstreit (age 9) and Kirk Herbstreit as Corso picks the head gear of "Big Al" the Alabama mascot on the set during the live broadcast of ESPN College GameDay at Sundance Square. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports /
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How does Alabama fare when ESPN’s College GameDay comes to town? And more specifically – what are the odds Bama wins if Corso chooses the Tide?

ESPN’s College GameDay is a show everyone loves – or loves to hate. Either way, we all tune in week after week for the latest updates and predictions on the day’s games. Every time, fans make the craziest signs, Tom Renaldi makes us cry (WHY, Tom?? WHY??), and Sam Ponder proves to the world that women DO know their football.

However, the highlight of each show is always Lee Corso’s headgear pick. The former football coach and hands-down craziest member of the College Gameday crew predicts the winner of the featured game by wearing the headpiece of that team’s mascot. (Except Auburn, cause God forbid they let anyone touch Aubie’s head…).

College GameDay first aired in 1987. It’s hard to find much data on the show’s locations and picks prior to the 1996 season. Because of this, our information starts there.

Alabama has been a part of the featured matchup 32 times that we can find, beginning November 9th, 1996 against LSU in Baton Rouge. (Corso picked Bama to win, and sadly, he was wrong).

In total, Lee Corso wore Big Al’s head in support of a Crimson Tide win 23 out of 32 times.

So how does the Crimson Tide fare when Corso picks Alabama?

Actually, that answer depends on a few factors.

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In general, when Corso chooses the Tide, it’s a pretty solid decision. Bama won 16 of the featured games (50% success), but Corso’s numbers are better. If he chose Bama to win, 70% of the time, he was correct. That’s not too bad, right?

It gets more interesting.

College GameDay has come to Tuscaloosa 11 times. Of those 11, Corso put on the Big Al headgear 8 times, choosing the Tide to win.

But only three times has Bama actually won, in Tuscaloosa, when Corso picked Alabama over the visiting team. That’s a pretty crummy 27% success rate.

This Week

Alabama takes on the Texas A&M Aggies tomorrow, and GameDay is already setting up in front of Bryant-Denny Stadium. This is a battle for the SEC West, and some say the winner will go on to take the SEC Championship in December. Bama is number one in the polls, but the Aggies aren’t far behind with a number six ranking.

At this time, Alabama is favored to win by a whopping 18 points according to OddShark.com. The line could change some between now and game time, but probably not by much.

Given those odds, it’s likely that all of the College GameDay crew – including Lee Corso – will choose Alabama to win at home against TAMU. It’s possible to choose an Aggie upset, of course, though not expected.

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Hopefully, if Corso does in fact put on Big Al’s head for the final pick, an Alabama win will raise his percentage numbers to 44%. That’s still not a great number, but it’s definitely moving in the right direction.

If the Corso headgear trend says true to form, any time College GameDay comes to Tuscaloosa in the future, Bama fans everywhere will shout “HEY CORSO!  DON’T PICK BAMA!”

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