Alabama Football: Dissecting and Projecting Kiffin’s 2016 Offense
By Tyler Dalton
If you are concerned with what the Alabama football offense may look like in 2016, I think we can relax. If look at Kiffin through the years, you will notice trends and the Tide will roll.
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Let’s rewind back to the end of last summer when I wrote this. I was overlooking the Destin beach, from a balcony, without a care in the world while others feverishly tried to project Alabama’s offense and quarterback battle. Okay, the Destin note wasn’t needed but I’m on vacation.
Have my views changed this summer? No. My point still stands. After seeing what Lane Kiffin has accomplished the previous two seasons, it’s a difficult task to ask me to worry in the slightest. Whether you’re with me, against me or cautiously optimistic, let’s dive into Kiffin’s coaching past and hammer out any remaining questions.
After being promoted to passing game coordinator in 2004, Kiffin helped guide Matt Leinart to a Heisman trophy that season. Boom, this article is done. Time to cue the John Cena music and head on out for margaritas. Oh, want more? Okay fine, let’s dig a bit deeper.
Starting with the quarterbacks, you can’t deny Kiffin truly is a quarterback whisperer. Leinart, Matt Barkley, and Cody Kessler are all in the top-seven in Pac-12 career touchdowns and top 14 in career passing yards, with Barkley being first and second in these records, respectively. These numbers shouldn’t come as a shock for Alabama fans after witnessing Blake Sims break these records for his school. Sims also placed fourth and seventh in the NCAA in quarterback rating (83.7) and pass efficiency (157.9).
Jake Coker got in on the action last season, posting the highest completion percentage in the NCAA over the last ten games, sitting at 72.2. What may be the most impressive feat is what Kiffin has done with quarterbacks starting in their first year in his system. For these stats, I averaged two separate parties. The first consists of Barkley, Kessler, John David Booty, Jonathan Crompton, Sims, and Coker. The second set is to just Alabama quarterbacks. These numbers represent their season averages.
- 390.3 Attempts, 3084 Yards, 63.2 Completion Percentage, 25.2 Touchdowns, 145.8 QB Rating
- 392 Attempts, 3298.5 Yards, 65.7 Completion Percentage, 24.5 Touchdowns, 152.5 QB Rating
I wouldn’t be worried at all regarding the starting quarterback battle between Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett.
Time to shift gears to the running game. There are a couple interesting tidbits I found when breaking down the 2015 season. First off, last season was the only year in Kiffin’s time (as a coordinator or head coach) the top two rushers had more attempts than the starting quarterback’s total pass attempts. The other note pertains to Derrick Henry. The Heisman winner was the first 1,000-yard rusher under Kiffin since 2009, dating back to Tennessee’s Montario Hardesty. Before that, it was 2005.
These stats may not be that big of a deal but make a mental note right here because we’re going to revisit this stat a bit down the page. It’s interesting to think Kiffin never had a 1,000-yard rusher during his head coaching tenure at USC, considering there have only been three seasons his offense averaged more pass attempts per game than rush attempts. This shows Kiffin is adaptable and uses his most talented tools heavily.
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As Kiffin’s quarterbacks break conference records, it’s his running backs that bring home the hardware. Kiffin ran Heisman winner Reggie Bush inside, outside, placed him out wide, and had him returning kicks. When dealing with Henry, the strategy was to keep pounding the ball and wear out defenses just as Henry was getting stronger and stronger. Two completely different styles but the same result.
Finally, we check out the wide outs. Oh look, more hardware. Both Marquise Lee and Amari Cooper were both unanimous All-Americans, broke conference records, and took home the Biletnikoff award. Outside of these two historical single seasons, Kiffin has a good resume in other years as well. Six out of the past nine seasons Kiffin has coached a wide receiver that reached the 1,000-yard mark. He recruits, develops and then has the ability to scheme ways to get the ball into these players’ hands.
So let’s just take a breather and recap what we’ve read so far. Kiffin’s offense is very quarterback friendly. Not only is his system friendly, but it’s also balanced. In 2011, USC has a 3,500-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher. Some years, receivers dominated. Other years, it was all about the ground game. What we know this year is we’re going to see the ball go to Alabama’s best players. So, time to figure that out.
When evaluating this year’s team, insert your favorite player at quarterback. At running back, there is that guy named Bo Scarbrough. If you’re not familiar with Bo, he’s fighting Godzilla in the next summer blockbuster. Behind the Godzilla slayer, we have sophomore Damien Harris. He rated out as the top back in his class. After those two players, there is a lot of uncertainty.
The wide receiver position is a totally different animal. Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart are back, we’re loaded. Oh, I forgot to mention Cam Sims, Daylon Charlot, that transfer Gehrig Dieter (who torched Tennesee), Derek Kief, and sure, just group O.J. Howard in the party. This list is almost laughable…for us, definitely not opposing defenses. Oh wait, there’s more. How could I forget Robert Foster? He only entered last season as our #1 wide receiver on the depth chart.
Putting all the ingredients in the bowl and mixing them around the offensive scheme batter, what do we get? A first-year starter, which isn’t a problem, with ample weapons and a talented run game but a run game that’s not very deep. I expect Kiffin to spread the ball around this year. Not only does Alabama have the talent to accomplish this, but Bo isn’t getting the Henry treatment this season. With an already ample injury history and hardly any depth behind him, it would be wise to split carries more evenly this year. Look for the offense to find creative ways to get the ball to the receivers more. I’m looking for the run game to balance out the passing game rather than the other way around, which is what fans are accustomed to seeing. The jet sweep will be back and the screen passes will be plentiful. Easy plays for the quarterback to deliver the ball to the best players.
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Remember that mental note I told you to hold onto? Bring that back front and center. Kiffin’s offensive history doesn’t guarantee the typical Alabama offense that will run the ball down your throats and throw on third down. Kiffin is a master at adjusting to the players around him and finding ways to get the ball where it needs to go. Whether that was Leinart teeing off with all of his talent surrounding him, Bush becoming the most dynamic player in football, Lee seeing all the targets and then some, Barkley airing it out because the lack of a run game, Cooper becoming Alabama’s passing offense, or Henry putting the team on his back from November on, you can bet this offense will be ready to go.
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Now don’t mind me, there is a crawfish boil calling my name.