Finally, for Alabama football fans the long offseason is almost over. A new season renews national championship expectations with little thought to how slim are the margins to win it all.
It is said we Alabama football fans are spoiled. Some of us admit it is true. Being spoiled by championship success in abundance is a Crimson Tide malady. It started long before Nick Saban. It continues in the midst of a dynastic run that feels as though it will last forever.
We know championship droughts too. Pain so extended at points of our history, the damage from our misdeeds and misfortune felt endless. Three times great men have led us out of the college football wilderness. Between them, they crafted 12 national championships. We don’t just expect more. We know the future will bring more.
What is often lost when regaling Alabama football national championship history is chance. Good fortune shines on champions for not always clear reasons. NFL coaching legend, Vince Lombardi gets credit for saying,
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Lombardi’s statement was not original. The life advice goes back to a Roman philosopher named Seneca.
Agreeing with the Roman does not exclude also knowing sometimes luck, good and bad, just happens. Hence the old idiom, “just the way the ball bounces.”
The way the ball bounced in 2010
In 2010, the ball bounced the wrong way for Alabama football and the right way for Auburn. At the end of a long Mark Ingram pass reception, the ball was punched out of his arms from behind. It could have easily gone out-of-bounds. It did not and ran through the back of the endzone. It was a game-changing play and had the fumble gone out-of-bounds, Auburn might have never won a 2010 national championship.
It was a great play by the Auburn defender but luck was a factor. Two more inter-related plays occurred in that Iron Bowl game. Late in the first half, Mark Barron injured a pectoral muscle trying to defend an Auburn touchdown pass. He did not disclose the extent of the injury at halftime.
In the second half, Barron was perfectly positioned to intercept a long and slightly underthrown pass from Cam Newton. The problem was Barron could only raise one arm. A possible interception turned into a one-armed missed tackle and an Auburn touchdown.
How much luck was involved? Barron’s injury came at the end of an easy pitch and catch touchdown by Auburn. Barron was beaten on the play. Arriving late, he lunged trying to swipe the ball loose from the receiver. Mark lunged because for an instant the catch was juggled. No juggle, no lunge and no torn pectoral muscle. That can only be described as a vagary of fate.
Other examples of fate can be recounted. One no Alabama football fan can deny is the miracle allowing Arkansas to beat Ole Miss in 2015.
On a 4th-and-25 in overtime, Hunter Henry caught a pass and was being tackled far short of the needed yardage. He quickly flung a lateral back over his head. He clearly had no idea who might catch the lateral. The looping ball was first touched by an Arkansas offensive linemen, before bounding off the ground and into the hands of the best Razorback runner. Arkansas made the first down and won in OT, knocking Ole Miss out of the SEC Championship game.
Perhaps in 2015, Alabama football might have made the CFB Playoff field without being an SEC Champion. We cannot know, but without one incredibly lucky play by Arkansas, Alabama would not have played in the SEC championship game.
What about last season?
It is hard to know what the CFB Selection Committee would have done had Auburn beat Georgia for the SEC Championship. Any one or two of Alabama football, Auburn and Georgia might have been chosen for the final four.
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There is no doubt the Auburn loss benefitted the Alabama Crimson Tide. That loss might not have happened if a healthy Kerryon Johnson had played in the second Georgia game. Why he was not healthy has been clouded in misinformation. It was widely reported he exited the Iron Bowl with a non-contact injury.
Less reported is he injured a shoulder earlier in the game, falling on it after a tackle by Ronnie Harrison. The tackle was hard but not a bone-crusher. More than anything, it caused Johnson to land awkwardly. Without that tumble, Johnson may have been near 100 percent against Georgia. With him severely hampered, the Auburn offense was neutered.
One play in a lost Iron Bowl might have led to the National Championship victory nearly as much as overtime plays against Georgia six weeks later. Perhaps too much of a stretch is made with the last example of fate. Or maybe the Harrison tackle and the results it triggered, are just what Seneca and Lombardi stated, “preparation meeting opportunity.”
There is no way to define the extent luck favors champions. We can all agree luck is sometimes a factor in losing. If so, it must also sometimes be a factor in winning. And the margin between the two results can be ever so slim.
Is it not better to be lucky than good. Alabama football championships are driven by hard work and determination. Being a little lucky never hurts.