A banged-up Alabama Crimson Tide will face off against Georgia in Atlanta this weekend with the SEC Championship - and a guaranteed spot in the College Football Playoff - on the line.
While the playoff committee gave Alabama a buffer by moving them to No. 9 over Notre Dame this week, the Crimson Tide is still focused on taking the decision out of anyone else's hands. They know if they handle their business and beat Georgia, they are in the playoff, no questions asked.
The only question that would remain from beating Georgia would be how high Alabama would jump. Most expect the Tide to jump into the top four and receive a first-round bye in the playoff. That would be welcome news for a team nursing quite a few injuries.
Beating Georgia is no small task, however. Alabama already did it once in a September road game in Athens, but beating the same team twice is always a great challenge. Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs well prepared for the rematch, and it will be up to Kalen DeBoer to find the answers that lead the Tide to the SEC crown.
3 bold predictions for Alabama in the SEC Championship Game
1. Alabama holds Georgia to 120 or fewer rushing yards
Let's start out with a big one: if Alabama does hold Georgia to 120 or fewer rushing yards, the Tide will be the SEC champions.
Alabama allowed 227 rushing yards to Georgia in the regular-season meeting, but was able to overcome that and still earn a victory. It seems unlikely that lightning would strike twice for the Crimson Tide to win again despite getting gouged on the ground.
Alabama doesn't have to shut the Georgia ground game down completely, but if it can, it would go a long way toward assuring the victory.
Georgia has run the ball effectively some this season, but still only ranks 57th in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper. Alabama has gotten better at stopping the run, moving up to #27 in run defense success rate.
Alabama has been pretty good on a down-to-down basis against opposing rushing attacks, but has allowed far too many explosive plays. That was certainly the case in the first game against Georgia, and Kane Wommack will look to avoid it in the sequel.
2. AK Dear creates an explosive play
With Jam Miller questionable and Kevin Riley out, Alabama's running back room has been hit by severe attrition. Redshirt freshman Daniel Hill will start this weekend if Miller can't go, but there could be a role for the true freshman, AK Dear.
Dear got the first meaningful snap of his collegiate career in last week's Iron Bowl, taking a screen pass for six yards. Alabama may be apprehensive to play the freshman too much due to concerns as a pass blocker, but they don't seem to have any reservations about putting the ball in his hands in pivotal moments.
Dear is a homerun hitter. What better time for him to do that than with the SEC Championship on the line?
3. Ryan Williams finds the endzone
Remember Ryan Williams? It's been over a month since he touched the ball more than three times in a single game on offense. He was completely MIA in last week's win over Auburn. Not only did he not register a catch, but he also wasn't targeted once.
That can't happen again.
I'm well aware that Williams has struggled this season, particularly with drops, but he's still the most explosive player on an offense that is in sore need of some big plays. Alabama has failed to hit many home runs on offense this season, and when they have, Williams has typically been the guy to do so.
DeBoer and Ryan Grubb would be wise to get Williams involved against Georgia early. Throw caution to the wind and put the ball in the hands of one of the most explosive players in college football.
Maybe it's foolish, but my money is on Williams to deliver.