Kalen DeBoer and Alabama football are almost certainly heading to the College Football Playoff after the CFP committee gave the Crimson Tide a one-spot bump in Tuesday night's penultimate rankings.
After a 27-20 win in the Iron Bowl, Alabama leapfrogged Notre Dame from No. 10 to No. 9 in the rankings, all but securing the Crimson Tide's spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens in Saturday's SEC Championship Game.
At No. 10, the nightmare scenario seemed obvious: an Alabama loss to Georgia coupled with a BYU upset over Texas Tech threatened to knock the Crimson Tide out of the playoff entirely. It's clear that the committee did not want to set the precedent that losing the SEC Championship could knock a team out of the playoff entirely. So now it's Notre Dame on the chopping block, depending on the result of the Big 12 Championship Game.
Notes from the penultimate CFP rankings:
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) December 3, 2025
- a BYU upset of Texas Tech could put in both Big 12 teams, jeopardizing Notre Dame’s playoff spot
- a Duke win over UVA and a JMU win in Sun Belt could eliminate the ACC
- Ole Miss seems solid to host, along with Oregon and Texas A&M pic.twitter.com/rDH1u3Ue4r
This is the committee correcting a previous mistake; Alabama dropping behind Notre Dame made little sense when it happened. It might seem a bit awkward to make that move now, but it's better late than never. By every metric - aside from "quality of loss" - Alabama has a better resume than Notre Dame. Fans in South Bend are undoubtedly spitting mad, but this was the correct decision.
Alabama a near lock to make the College Football Playoff
If you read the tea leaves from the betting odds last night and this morning, Alabama jumping to No. 9 was not a surprise. Oddsmakers overexposed themselves to major losses if the Crimson Tide was left out of the field, and they don't build those gigantic casinos for nothing, folks.
This doesn't completely lock the Tide into the playoff, but it comes pretty close. It would take a substantial blowout loss to the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon to potentially change the committee's mind at this point.
If Alabama is just competitive, it should be enough to earn a spot in the playoff field.
Obviously, a win removes any doubt, and that's undeniably the goal for DeBoer and the Crimson Tide this weekend in Atlanta. A win would probably be enough to jump Alabama into the top four and secure a first-round bye.
A loss likely leaves Alabama at around the 9 or 10-seed, meaning the Crimson Tide would start the playoff on the road, likely against another SEC opponent. The six, seven, and eight seeds are all occupied by conference foes at the moment: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma, in that order.
For a while, it felt like 10-2 with a berth into the SEC Championship Game would be enough to secure a spot in the playoff. The six-spot fall after a two-point home loss to a projected playoff team changed the narrative. On Tuesday night, the committee flipped it back in the Tide's direction.