Aden Holloway, Alabama’s second-leading scorer, is no longer with the team and has been “removed from campus” following a felony drug arrest ahead of the NCAA Tournament. He will remain off the team until he undergoes the school’s investigation and will almost certainly miss the team’s entire March Madness run, however long it may go.
The fourth-seeded Crimson Tide tip off their tournament run on Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET in Tampa, Florida, against No. 13 seed Hofstra, the CAA champion. It will be the fifth game that Nate Oats’s team plays without Holloway this season, and so far, they are 3-1 without him.
However, that strong record in his absence doesn’t tell the full story. While the Tide might be fine without Holloway, they almost certainly won’t be better without Labaron Philon Jr.’s backcourt mate in March.
Will Alabama’s defense improve without Holloway on the floor?
The four games Holloway missed came early in the season. He was sidelined for the season-opener against North Dakota, then missed three straight in December as the Tide beat Clemson and UTSA before falling to then-No. 1 Arizona.
There’s an argument to be made, and Nate Oats’s behavior on the recruit trail would make it, that Alabama is too small this year. The Tide rely heavily on an undersized three-guard lineup with 6-foot-1 Holloway, 6-foot-4 Philon, and 6-foot-3 Latrell Wrightsell. That’s unsustainable in a college basketball ecosystem that just saw supersized Florida win a national title and Duke, the tallest team in the country by average height at 6-foot-6, grab the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
For the season, the Tide ranks 251st in defensive rating and 292nd in defensive rebound percentage (per CBBanalytics.com). Lineups that feature all three guards perform even worse than the team’s season-long average in both metrics, though they are some of the most efficient offensive lineups in the country.
While Holloway is one of the country’s most lethal shooters at 43.8 percent from beyond the arc and is averaging 16.8 points per game, there’s an argument to be made that Holloway’s injury will force Oats to put more size on the floor around Philon, which will give opposing offenses less to pick on. That could be seen as a blessing in disguise, if it weren’t for the fact that all three of Alabama’s best five-man lineups by defensive rating this season feature Holloway.
Not enough to make up for his offense
For the year, Alabama’s defensive rating is 113.6. With Holloway on the floor, it’s 113.7. Neither number is good, but with Holloway off the floor, it only improves to 113.3. That’s not enough of a bump on the defensive end to make up for the offensive rating drop from 129.9 with Holloway to 116.7 without him.
Alabama needs more positional size to get back to a Final Four. Nate Oats knows it, and that’s why his incoming recruiting class features three 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-6 playmaking wings. But this year’s team can’t afford to get bigger at the expense of Holloway because you can argue he’s the Tide’s most valuable offensive player. By offensive real adjusted plus-minus, he’s No. 4 in the country behind Keaton Wagler, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie. That’s a player you can’t live without.