Alabama very likely secured its spot in the College Football Playoff after beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The committee moved Alabama up one spot from No. 10 to No. 9, leapfrogging Notre Dame and making it unlikely that the Crimson Tide would drop out of the playoff with a loss to Georgia in Saturday's SEC Championship Game.
The jump provides Alabama with a necessary buffer to avoid the nightmare scenario. At No. 10, Alabama was at risk of falling out with a loss if BYU upsets Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, which would secure two bids for the Big 12 instead of the expected one. Now, it's Notre Dame on the chopping block instead, barring a complete meltdown by Alabama in Atlanta that changes the minds of the committee.
It always seemed unlikely that the committee would want to set the precedent of leaving out the SEC runner-up. Moving Alabama up one spot gives them the ability to avoid that.
The question now becomes how high Alabama could move up in the rankings by beating Georgia and securing the SEC Championship. Opinions from ESPN's talking heads last night differed between Greg McElroy on one end and Joey Galloway and Booger McFarland on the other.
McElroy believes Alabama would jump all the way into the top four and earn a first-round bye. Galloway and McFarland disagreed.
Greg McElroy thinks Alabama gets CFP bye if it beats Georgia. Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway don’t think so.
— Nick Kelly (@_NickKelly) December 3, 2025
Can’t stress enough how valuable a bye would be for Bama players to rest up and get healed for the playoff. Playoff game at BDS would be electric, though.
An SEC Championship should be enough to jump Alabama into a bye
Galloway and McFarland can disagree all they want, but I'd bet on it being a near certainty that Alabama will jump into the top four by beating Georgia in Atlanta this weekend. The Bulldogs sit at No. 3 currently, and a Tide win would put both Alabama and Georgia at 11-2. With a 2-0 record head-to-head, there would be no argument for Georgia to stay ahead of Alabama.
So if Alabama has to jump Georgia, it also has to jump Ole Miss, which is the second-highest-ranked SEC team in the latest committee rankings. Georgia beat Ole Miss head-to-head and finished with an identical 11-1 regular season record. Georgia won't be punished for losing a game that Ole Miss didn't earn the right to play in.
If Alabama beats Georgia, I would expect the top four to look something like this:
- Ohio State/Indiana winner
- Ohio State/Indiana loser
- Texas Tech (assuming Big 12 Champ)
- Alabama
If BYU beats Texas Tech, then Alabama probably jumps to No. 3 and Georgia slots in at No. 4, securing two first-round byes for the SEC.
All of this means it's probably unlikely that the Crimson Tide gets a home playoff game this year. A win should bump them into the top four, while a loss will either hold them at No. 9 or drop them one spot to No. 10, meaning Alabama will be on the road to start the playoff.